Dangers of a fracturing regime: Cameroon, Western Africa

Most we wait for the rains to come before we look for a shelter? Most we wait to be famished before we think of sowing our seeds or planting our crops? If there are dark clouds in the horizon, are those not enough signs for those with seeing eyes that we shall soon have a deluge? How many times do third world nation states wait for these? If we are soon caught by the rains when we have been given ample time to prepare for it, do we attribute our tribulations caused by this to nature or to ourselves? There is no single road that is not potholed in the Cameroon; there is not a single law-enforcement officer who given opportunity in that country will not pilfer. There are no intellectuals in position of authority in institutions of higher learning who do not ask for favors of the flesh from their students before they are made to pass their examinations; there is no gendarme or police officer on the highway who does not openly extort money from taxi drivers, bush lorry drivers, and other road users; there are no priests in that country who do not extort from their Christians to sustain their opulent lifestyles: they ask for pencils and pens to be brought to the pulpits to be blessed for a price before pupils go to write their examinations. I said to them that no amount of blessing could make students pass their exams if they have not prepared in the appropriate way for them. In other words, the taking of the aspersion had to be throughout the studentship and not for stipends given to priests on the verge of writing examinations. They could even submerge themselves in holy water and drink some and they will never pass. I called that trivializing the tasks of God for personal gains and that was a transgression. On reflecting with others, on the nature of things in a state called the Cameroon located in the armpit of Western Africa, a buddy called me aside and told me that it was no use bemoaning as shading even tears, sweat and blood will not change or make the rulers of the country show remorse over their citizens they were treating like slaves for their personal benefits. I could not imagine how one would be taciturn on seeing potholed roads where locals were not even allowed to take their shovels and close the holes to enable their bombastic jalopies ferry their goods to their markets for fear that the government of the day would persecute them. The reasoning of the regime of Mr. Paul Biya who has been ruling that country as his private property for the last 28 years, I was told that it would be interpreted by the local folks as a weakness, being lackadaisical and not caring. How long can that government continue to befuddle its citizens and they keep on singing its bogus praises as on the celebration of its 50th anniversary of independence on May 20th 2010? Do they not see the examples of other fallen states in Africa and elsewhere? Another denizen told me that the only solution was a complete revolution. He did not elaborate on that. However my apprehension was that they should refrain from the type of revolution of dog-eat-dog we witnessed in Sierra Leone, Liberia and other autocratic banana republics in central Africa. Now that the rainstorm is gathering its momentum in the horizon and the worldly ombudsmen are sitting put with their folded hands and pampering themselves that it is only a blessed aspersion drizzle, can a true thinker not predict the outcome of the storm if the forthcoming 2011 presidential election is viewed by marginalized oppositions parties as shrouded in fraudulence? If the army takes over as some thinkers purport to predict, will it not be getting the egg from the fry pan to the blazing coal? Americans and Frenchmen who are interested in this region for their economic gains what is your damn feeling? It shudders me right to my marrow bones when I read stuff as this below. If the rainstorm could be halted before it could reach the land by the peace-loving men who value their lives and those of others, could that not be done on time even in the name of God or for the sake of peace? What does Mr. Paul Biya and his entourage say when they read reinvestigation of this nature?
Dr. Viban.



Source: International Crisis Group
Source Website: www.crisisgroup.org

African Charter Article# 23: All peoples shall have the right to national and international peace and security.

Summary & Comment: Le francais suit. Recent analyses by international crisis group suggest that Cameroon is a fragile state run by a fracturing regime. Its 20 year old democracy has consolidated corruption, elitism, illegality, and inequality. The absence of legal and constitutional certainty before the 2011 presidential elections may cause the army to step in if things go wrong. Cameroon therefore risks becoming another Guinea. The Executive Summary and Recommendations follow. MUB



1. The dangers of a fracturing regime
2. Les dangers d'un regime en pleine fracture
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1. The dangers of a fracturing regime

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/cameroon/161-cameroon-the-dangers-of-a-fracturing-regime.aspx

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

After 28 years of the Biya presidency, Cameroon faces potential instability in the run up to the presidential elections scheduled for late 2011. Constitutional and legal uncertainty; rivalries between the regime’s leading figures; the government’s attempts to control the electoral process; the rupture of the political contract between leaders and the population; widespread poverty and frustration; extensive corruption; and the frustration of a large part of the army all point to the possibility of a major crisis.

To escape this Biya and his government must restore the independence of the body responsible for elections; institutionalise an impartial fight against corruption and ensure the military’s political neutrality. They must also urgently establish the institutions envisaged by the 1996 constitution, so that a power vacuum and the potential for violence can be avoided in the event of a transition, including an unexpected one such as the death of the 77-year-old president in office. Cameroon’s most influential partners, particularly France and the U.S., should actively support such measures to avoid unrest.

The ruling party is increasingly divided. Although it dominates political life, it knows that it lacks legitimacy, and it is weakened by intense internal rivalries over control of resources and positioning for the post-Biya period. Having done away with the constitutional limitation on the number of presidential terms, Biya, who is at the same time feared and opposed in his own party, is deliberately maintaining uncertainty over whether he will stand again. Many members of his party harbour their own presidential ambitions.

The security forces, a pillar of support for the regime, are also divided. A small number of elite units have good equipment and training, while the rest, although they do receive their correct salaries on a regular basis, lack resources and are poorly prepared. The military as a whole suffers from tensions between generations, not least because the refusal of older generals to retire blocks promotions for more junior officers. Some members of the security forces are also widely believed to be involved in criminal activities.

With the country afflicted by high levels of corruption, a clientelist political system and a heavy security presence in all areas of life, many citizens feel excluded from the system. Fully half the population is younger than twenty, so the high level of youth unemployment and under-employment is a considerable source of social tension. Given such fissures, were Biya to die in office a serious crisis could unfold, aggravated by the unclear constitutional provisions for a transition. Such an event may not occur for some time, but, with democracy at an impasse, the immediate post-Biya period is already a significant factor in intra-regime politics, and acknowledged as a major potential cause of instability.

In any event, the 2011 elections could easily lead to conflict if they are poorly organised or lack transparency. The organising body has no legitimacy and has already made a bad start in the preparations. If there is no option for democratic political change, there is a good chance ordinary citizens, members of the political class and/or military elements will eventually choose violence as a way out of the current impasse.

The long Biya era, his manipulation of ethnic identities and the corruption and criminality among elites have generated numerous frustrations. The serious unrest of 2008, when economic grievances, political protest and elite manipulation resulted in dozens of deaths, gives an indication of the risks of violent conflict. A chaotic situation could lead to a military takeover and would certainly have detrimental effects on the region, in which Cameroon has up to now been a point of stability. In the medium term, Cameroon faces numerous challenges to improve management of public resources, an issue which lies at the heart of its problems. But in the shorter term, urgent actions need to be taken to avoid a crisis around the 2011 elections.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To the Government of Cameroon:

1. Promote greater transparency in electoral processes by restoring the independence of the electoral body; revising the electoral code; drawing up credible electoral lists; and enlarging the electoral register, whose current very restricted scope risks excluding many citizens.
2. Set up, as soon as possible, the institutions provided for in the 1996 constitution but still not in place, including the senate, the constitutional council, and the regional governing bodies.
3. Improve anti-corruption efforts by:
a) reviewing the “Epervier” anti-corruption operation, which has so far seen
the arrest of several dozen high level officials and ministers, in order to
make it part of an institutional and impartial fight against corruption;
b) creating an anti-corruption body which is truly independent of the
executive and follows clear legal processes; and
c) fostering anti-corruption public awareness and instigating transparent,
systematic sanctions against those responsible for unlawful practices.
4. Enter in good faith into dialogue with opposition forces on election management and tackling corruption.

To the International Community, in particular France and the U.S.:
5. Put maximum pressure on the government to establish the senate, the constitutional council and regional governing bodies.
6. Continue to support electoral processes, but speak out clearly against poor and/or unfair practices.
7. Begin planning observation missions for the 2011 elections; agree on common positions with regard to unacceptable practices before, during and after the elections; and emphasise the need both for all parties to accept the outcome and for neutral legal means to be available for them to contest results peacefully.
8. Use their aid and training support to the security sector to pressure the government to acknowledge the role its security forces have played in human rights abuses, especially during the February 2008 protests, and to hold perpetrators accountable for their actions.

Dakar/Brussels,
24 June 2010

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